The forecast if true will be shocking but not surprising. Here's a sliver of a slice from the dice thrown in the fire. Funny, Planet Management folly.
Who knows what will happen over the next 18 months as the U.S. military steadily lowers its profile to the vanishing point. Iraq might erupt in civil war, or Maliki (or someone else) might manage to clench and hammer an iron fist. (The least likely scenario is the Bush/neocon dream of a Western-style democracy taking hold along the Euphrates and spreading like wildfire across the Middle East.)
Either way, formally and practically, it's out of our control.